Calabamian

From my vantage point as a white male heterosexual Democrat from California living in Alabama, Vice President Harris has run a phenomenal campaign. I’ve watched her annihilation of Trump on the debate stage no fewer than three times. And yet I have the sinking feeling that Kamala is blowing the election by saying nothing while Israel keeps bombing refugee camps, hospitals and schools. And there’s nothing I can do except write down words and hope somebody sees them.

I’ve yet to meet anybody not horrified by October 7^th, 2023. The entire world sympathized with Israel and wanted them to destroy the Hamas leaders responsible for the attacks.

The problem for Israel is they predictably over-rotated again and this time, the world saw it. They’ve now avenged the deaths of 1,200 Israelis by killing at least 40,000 Gazans – 1 out of every 55 people.

This is to say nothing of their campaign to starve them of food and water (while partying) and displacing 80 percent of the population. In short, Israel has fumbled away the world’s goodwill Worse yet, Joe Biden has made zero halftime adjustments, despite all of us knowing Bibi’s next plays. And so here we are, funding an actual genocide with no end in sight.

This would be perfectly fine if Kamala’s base were Republicans (more on this in a bit). Unfortunately for her, it’s not.

First, a Few Caveats

• I’m a lifelong Democrat.
• I hate Trump with every fiber of my being.
• I want you to win, Kamala.

I’ve watched politics for many years. One thing I’ve learned is when Dems have a clearly superior candidate running against a certified clown hawking watches, gold sneakers and crypto while sharting his way through speeches – and the polling is tied – it’s not because we haven’t won over enough Liz Cheneys. Our side has a structural issue that needs addressing, stat…likely a pissed off voting bloc.

Say what you will about Republicans, but the only reason Trump remains competitive is his constant screeching to his base. He tells them what they want to hear, no matter how deporable it is. This keeps them “energized.”

Unfortunately for America, this involves constant exposure to boatloads of crazy talk, conspiracy theories, racism, and a mind-numbing amounts of disingenuousness. Trump will never win by “reaching across the aisle” to Democrats. In fact, if anyone caught him doing so his support would collapse overnight.

Democrats on the other hand are not uninformed. We are the big tent party…the adults in the room. And when it comes to saving democracy, our constituencies have swelled. But the Beltway press and Bulwark punditry overemphasize corralling the mythical “Nikki Haley voter.” They somehow wait in breathless anticipation for the George W. Bush endorsement. This certainly keeps Tim Miller and Tom Nichols’ head in the game, but does little to electrify Democrats.

Embrace Your Base

Like it or not, your base – the organizers, phone callers, door knockers – is full of empaths. There is a reason you’ll never see Sarah MacLachlan animal cruelty ads on Fox News. The reason for this is Fox News viewers don’t give a shit. The reason they don’t give a shit is they have overdeveloped amygdalas, the part of the brain that evaluates threats and responds to fear.

If I may speak plainly, Republicans don’t react to the plight of others. Getting them off the couch requires talking about migrants and shortages and gold. Tell them FEMA is coming for their property, “illegals” are moving in on their jobs, or striking dockworkers might cause empty shelves.

Your progressive base on the other hand, is just wired differently. We don’t like watching children being pulled from buildings our tax dollars turned to dust. Liberals listen in horror as doctors recount IDF snipers intentionally shooting Palestinian kids in the head. We look around and ask ourselves if anyone else can see Israel’s full blown concentration camps where they are conducting torture, including rape. Those of us paying attention know it’s not normal for parents to feed daughters bread baked from animal feed. For us, it’s beyond disheartening to watch an obviously bad faith actor like Benjamin Netanyahu dog walk Biden for an entire year without a single cabinet member intervening.

From Hope to Eye Rolling

The genuine excitement many felt for Kamala’s candidacy presupposed she might signal a change on Israel, the anvil of Biden’s polling. But hope soon turned to eye rolling as she “ceasefire” and “working around the clock”-ed us into bored submission. She made it clear she would not be wavering AT ALL from the policy that singlehandedly tanked Biden’s numbers. A ceasefire the rest of us can see will never happen because when Netanyahu got close, he murdered the lead negotiator.

Fresh Perspective

Listen, I know you’re surrounded by super smart people like David Plouffe and Jen O’Malley Dillon. Respectfully though, they may have been in DC too long. Take 20 percent of your stalled “winning over Mitt Romney” energy and redirect it to patching things up in the Arab American community. You need this crucial block of voters being very much taking for granted. The latest Quinnipiac poll has you down 3 points in Michigan. Not uncoincidentally, Arab American voters comprise 2.1 percent of Michigan’s electorate. And they have friends.

“They’re forgetting that they’re not only losing Arab votes, but they’re losing other people’s votes who also care about this issue. It’s insulting, obviously, and demeaning to my community. And so that’s very hurtful. It’s not a smart strategy. I don’t think it’s smart politics,” says James Zogby, co-founder of the Arab-American Institute in Washington D.C.

Ironically, Kamala is blowing the election by alienating the people who most want to vote for her, including their allies. And it’s all so preventable. But don’t take my word for it – just look at the math.

How to Extinguish Voter Enthusiasm

In a June CBS News / YouGov poll, 61 percent of American adults called for a halt on weapons transfers to Israel, including 77 percent of Democrats.

Let me say this again: 77 percent of Democrats – 3 out of 4 – want weapons transfers to Israel halted. These are gun background check-level numbers.

OK but what about swing states, you ask? A poll published in September by the libertarian think tank Cato Institute found that the majority of likely voters in some Rust Belt swing states are in favor of conditioning military aid to Israel or are against sending aid altogether, including 61 percent of Wisconsinites, 56 percent of Michiganders and 51 percent of Pennsylvanians.

Kamala is Blowing the Election by Ignoring Gettable Voters

In a race this tight, every vote matters. What if I told you there is a way to make substantial numbers of people *more* likely to vote for Kamala Harris?

Another YouGov poll in August commissioned by the Institute for Middle Eastern Understanding Policy Project shows most voters in Pennsylvania (57 percent), and a sizeable number of voters in swing states Arizona (44 percent) and Georgia (34 percent), said they would more likely vote for Harris if the U.S. withholds arms to Israel.

Kamala’s room-reading response? “That’s a non-starter.”

Sigh.

Look, that’s your prerogative and I’m sure it keeps AIPAC off your case but please understand something. You are leaving hundreds of thousands of votes on the table to please a foreign leader who is rooting for your opponent.

 

Sometimes the Right Thing = the Popular Thing

On rare occasions the right thing to do intersects with the politically smart thing to do. Coincidentally, it’s also the very thing to fire up your base and juice voter turnout. In my humble opinion we can afford to lose Jewish votes in NY and CA. But we cannot afford to shed the votes of Arab Americans and young people in Michigan.

After listening to a variety of political podcasts I can report with 100 percent confidence there is a real hunger out there for Kamala to signal a shift in policy. Yet as The New Republic points out, “the Harris-Walz campaign offers only three sentences about Israel and Gaza on its ‘Issues’ page, and Harris seems determined to make them stretch as far as possible.”

Don’t Forget Where Your Bread is Buttered

Can a single Dem read the room? Netanyahu (who wants Trump to win) is obviously running all over Biden, a self-described Zionist. As a home viewer, rooting for Biden to register a flicker of empathy for Palestinians is an exercise in futility. While he goes through the motions of pretending to care, it’s clear he just doesn’t.

When forced to discuss the plight of non-Israelis in the region, he gets that same dead behind the eyes look that infected Hillary Clinton when Alex Wagner asked her about Gaza protests in February. The most concern she could muster was alarm over protesters’ lack of permits.

Yet hope remains for you, Kamala. For the record, I still do have hope. I realize you’re in a tight spot here, but so many of your would-be voters prayed you would utter ONE WORD that HINTED you MIGHT break from Biden on our blank check policy of arming an apartheid state committing mass murder. I mean, my God. We can see what’s happening. Not because western media would ever honestly cover this conflict, but because of social media. It’s right there – in our faces.

In 2020 Biden beat Trump by 20,000 votes in Wisconsin. In April’s primary, 47,000 voted “uninstructed” (Wisconsin’s version of uncommitted) to protest U.S. policy in Gaza. Again, these are primary voters…the ones who knock doors and make calls. Can we really afford to alienate a half-full Camp Randall Stadium amount of electorate?

“But Trump Would be Worse”

Of course he would be, and most right-minded voters understand this. But the bad vs. worse argument rings hollow when Israel killed your family in Gaza or the West Bank.

As Rachel Maddow pointed out Monday, killing 40,000 Palestinians is the equivalent of un-aliving six (6) million Americans when adjusted for population. If six million Americans were bombed and shot dead, the chances of us knowing someone impacted would be high. And we probably wouldn’t be very enthusiastic about re-electing the leader still supplying 2,000-pound bombs to our family’s killers.

And yet Arab-American voters persist in searching the Democratic Party for a *hint* of differentiation between them and the Republicans. Aside from The Squad and Senator Chris Van Hollen, they might be having trouble finding one. Israel seems to be the one policy offering no daylight between Lauren Boebert, Chuck Schumer, Elise Stefanik, and Joe Biden. If it weren’t so sad that a tiny Middle East ally is bossing us around, it’s almost impressive.

Jill Stein is Back and She’s Taking Your Votes

Green Party candidate Jill Stein is on the ballot in all seven (7) swing states. Everyone knows Stein is a Russian plant, but we sleep on the Stein threat at our great peril. Worry about Dem voters defecting to Stein, at least as much as you obsess over winning over another five Republicans. Like I said…people are pissed, and they’re looking to send a message. Just because Dems dismissed 100,000 uncommitted voters last spring doesn’t mean they went away. And like anyone else being ignored, they’re likely not getting less angry as time goes on. Kamala is blowing the election by continuing to ignore this crucial block of voters.

According to data released by the Council on American Islamic Relations (CAIR), the nation’s leading voice on civil liberties: “Green Party candidate Jill Stein leads Kamala Harris among Muslim-American voters in the three key swing states of Michigan, Arizona and Wisconsin, according to a new poll.”

More from Middle East Eye:

“In a survey conducted over two days in late August 2024, 1,076 registered voters from around the country pitched in with their preferences – and despite the widespread anger directed toward the Biden administration and Democrats for bankrolling Israel’s year-long war on Gaza, 29.4 percent of respondents said they will still vote for the party. But hot on Harris’ heels, 29.1 percent said they will vote for Stein, who has controversially said that what is happening in Gaza “makes any genocide pale by comparison” and has made ending the war a key pillar of her party platform.

Israel Keeps Bombing Refugee Camps, Schools and Hospitals

When they’re not bombing priceless artifacts, colleges and playgrounds, Israel keeps bombing refugee camps. The inescapable question for Democratic leaders is why doesn’t this bother anybody? Why doesn’t the sight of dancing Israelis actively blocking humanitarian aid from entering Gaza during rave parties incur anyone’s wrath at the State Department?  Aside from AOC & Co. and a few resigning State Department officials, we haven’t heard a satisfactory answer.

In fact by my count, the only thing Democrats achieved on Israel policy since October 7^th is offering up 22 of its members (et tu, Dan Goldman?) to join Republicans in censuring Rashida Tlaib, Congress’ lone Palestinian for the crime of defending her people.

Again, Dems…what constituency are you serving here? Your voters – 77 percent who want to halt offensive weapons shipments to Israel – can see you. They are pissed and want answers. If protesting is the “language of the unheard,” now you know why it keeps happening.

Massive Misstep in Milwaukee

At the DNC convention in Milwaukee, Dems doled out prime time speaking slots to six (6) Republicans or former Republicans. In fact, they pretty much went full NatSec which is no doubt politically wise. While none of them represent large Democratic constituencies, creating the “permission structure” for Republicans to vote for a Democrat was important and I thought they pulled it off well.

However in a bizarre political own goal, the Harris Campaign canceled its only Palestinian speaker.

Have I mentioned Harris is trying to win Michigan?

GA State Rep. Ruwa Romman is the face of the National Uncommitted Movement, which represents hundreds of thousands of voters arguing for a change in U.S. Israel policy. She submitted a speech they even cleared, before saying no. They instead relegated her to panelist at the first-ever Palestinian Human Rights Panel. Perhaps most disrespectfully, the DNC never offered Ruwa a reason for its change of heart.

“I really do not understand why they could not provide just a few minutes to a Palestinian,” she told WABE (NPR) in Milwaukee. “It would have been a beautiful symbol to unite the party and they chose not to do it.”

Can People See This?

Your base keeps looking around like…can anyone else see that Israel keeps bombing refugee camps? Why won’t western media cover IDF shooting American protesters dead? Why are we funding this? The more Israel obliterates civilians and hospitals, the more robotically you drone on about the bomb-droppers’ right to defend itself. This wins you zero new voters.

Quick question: Do Palestinians have a right to defend themselves? Does Lebanon have a right to defend itself? Or is this right bestowed only on Israel? If this is the case, maybe there’s a good reason for it. The problem is your base doesn’t know what it is.

Look, I’m not naïve. I’m sure AIPAC (a foreign lobbying firm which is somehow legal here) has threatened you. I’m sure you’ve heard some version of “tow the line or we’ll Jamaal Bowman your candidates.” But honestly, it might be time to call their bluff because you’re already hemorrhaging support from people who really, really want to vote for you. You’re outspending Trump 2 to 1 in television advertising, and he is gaining.

Why are we spending so much energy turning apathetic folks into voters while ignoring our own motivated voters?

I suspect most Democrats and Independents can surmise you’re a good person, and they realize you’re still the VP and can’t outwardly differ from Biden on policy. But I am telling you for the love of God and all that is holy…please distance yourself from the electorate’s cratering support of Israel, even if you must blink in morse code. Put daylight between you and Marjorie Taylor Greene on this issue. If not for moral reasons, for political math.

TL; DR

Amidst an otherwise phenomenal campaign, Kamala is blowing the election. But it’s not too late to turn it around. Only VP Harris in charge of what happens next. She can listen to her base – 77 percent of whom want to halt weapons transfers to Israel because they don’t like bombing entire apartment buildings full of civilians with our tax dollars, or she can stick to her three sentences on the matter insulting the intelligence of key voting blocs. We’ve all memorized her “working around the clock” pablum and refusal to publicly acknowledge the reality we’ve seen for months. Bibi stopped listening to you and Joe a long time ago. without consequence.

Maybe sticking to her talking points won’t matter and she wins in a landslide. I certainly hope that’s the case. In the meantime, consider the upside of listening to your base. We cannot afford to go back.

Finally, a quick reminder: the entire point of “soft power” is to exert influence over the country accepting your money or weapons. By refusing to exercise the “power” part, we’re just soft.